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Why Hone Harawira’s new party will fail

I am of the opinion that Hone Harawira wants to form a Maori party if he can get enough left wing people alongside that will cope with his Maori nationalism. But none of them will get into Parliament to join Harawira.

Waatea News reports that Harawira will not, “at this time” contest the Maori seats outside his own.

This can only mean that Harawira is banking on keeping his seat and getting 1.5 per cent of the party vote to bring in an additional member, as Rodney Hide did in 2005 and Jim Anderton did in 2002.

It’s looking like there is going to be a new party. It will be announced round about the middle of next month. I can’t say yet when the candidates will be announced. I can say that at this time it is not my intention to stand candidates in the Maori seats against the Maori Party members,” Mr Harawira says.

My guess is that the people he wants to attract will be unwilling to vote for his party in numbers that secure this additional parliamentary representation. Those on the Maori roll will also be unable to vote for his candidates, the exception being Te Tai Tokerau. That seat will be the sole possibility of a Maori mandate for the Harawira party – in essence, just Harawira. Most of those on Maori roll will have a Labour or Maori Party representative as their constituent MP.

Harawira has said that he wants a Maori-focused party and a decision to form a party rests with the elders of Te Tai Tokerau. If these elders want a Maori focused party, it will have to contest the Maori seats and have a Maori mandate.A left wing Maori Party will only get some Maori - mainly disaffected Maori Party voters who will not be able to cast candidate votes for the new party if they are on the Maori roll. They won’t cast party votes in large numbers for Harawira’s party either as it will be seen as a wasted vote.

Should Harawira bother to form his party without contesting Maori seats he will effectively give Maori no greater option than they currently have to elect candidates he puts up.