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Harawira may not form a new party - if he does it won’t be supported

Hone Harawira says his electorate committee is going to decide on Sunday whether a new party is going to be formed to contest the 2011 election.

He has also revealed that calls for a new party are coming from disaffected Maori Party supporters who can’t accept what is going on within the Maori Party.

We don’t know whether he is referring to disaffected voters of Maori Party candidates, or Maori party supporters who voted the Maori Party as their party vote – or a mix of the two. Perhaps he is also referring to disaffected Maori Party supporters who voted Labour with the list vote?

Given that Harawira has stated that he will not stand candidates in the Maori seats one wonders who he expects these disaffected Maori in the Maori electorate should seek as their constituent representatives. Will Harawira’s electorate committee conclude that a party is not worth forming as no one from the party is likely to enter parliament - or will they box on and do it anyway?

Even if well over half the supporters of those who list-voted the Maori Party in the Maori seats changed their 2008 vote to Harawira’s party, that will not be enough to get any more than one MP in parliament – meaning if Harawira does not retain his seat the party won't be represented in parliament.